The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast

The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast

Bitcoin's Crossing the Chasm Moment?

Daniel Batten
Feb 10, 2026
∙ Paid

What a last few weeks! As we know, price trends follow adoption trends. For the last 6 months we’ve been warning in this letter about some bearish adoption trends. This included warning about the dangers of following bullposting on Twitter, price signals that appeared to show bullishness had in fact lost their tune, and how adoption trends had slowed, leaving a vacuum of potential buyers as Bitcoin OG’s distributed.

Bitcoin’s future is bright, and this too will pass. But what’s clear is that for us to re-energize Bitcoin adoption, an earnest review of our past game footage are required.

This letter looks at three core issues that must be resolved in order for adoption to accelerate again.

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