The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast

The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast

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The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast
The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast
Bhutan’s Bitcoin Escape: How a Tiny Kingdom Exposed the IMF’s Playbook
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Bhutan’s Bitcoin Escape: How a Tiny Kingdom Exposed the IMF’s Playbook

Daniel Batten
Jun 03, 2025
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The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast
The Bitcoin Adoption Forecast
Bhutan’s Bitcoin Escape: How a Tiny Kingdom Exposed the IMF’s Playbook
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Last week I attended the Bitcoin conference, where John Perkins (Confessions of an Economic Hitman and I had a fireside chat. More significantly, we spoke privately beforehand on several occasions —and what we learned surprised us both.

Image

He discovered Bitcoin mining wasn’t the environmental/money laundering disaster outlets like The Economist claimed.

I realized just how desperately the IMF needs Bitcoin to fail.

The line “Neither can live while the other survives” comes to mind, and I’ll leave it for you to decide which one isn’t Harry.

Why does this matter?

Because this newsletter dissects what accelerates or blocks Bitcoin adoption. And right now, the most explosive emerging battleground is between Nation States adopting Bitcoin and the IMF.

Let’s start with Bhutan, because it - not El Salvador - has been the most successful Bitcoin adopter so far across three key metrics:

✅ has amassed a larger Bitcoin Strategic Reserve ($1.2B vs $660M)

✅ bypassed the need for IMF loans completely ($0 IMF loans vs new $1.4B loan)

✅ more profitable since they didn’t purchase any Bitcoin - they turned stranded energy turned into sovereignty (Bitcoin purchase vs Bitcoin mining)


Two Years Into Bhutan’s Bitcoin Experiment—And the IMF Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong

Inside Bhutan’s secretive Bitcoin mining operation

In Bhutan’s case, the IMF’s warnings about nations adopting Bitcoin evaporate faster than the purchasing power of fiat currencies during COVID. The IMF previously claimed nations embracing Bitcoin would face economic destabilization, reduced foreign investment, and environmental harm. Here’s what actually happened:

The Data Speaks

  1. Fiscal Lifeline: In June 2023, Bhutan used $72 million from Bitcoin reserves to fund a 50% salary increase for civil servants—directly contradicting the IMF’s fear of "currency instability."

  2. Dollar Shield: As foreign reserves dwindled to $464 million, Bitcoin holdings acted as a buffer, preventing a liquidity crisis.

  3. Public Goods: Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay in an interview said that bitcoin also "supports free healthcare and environmental projects"

  4. Economic Anchor: Tobgay also said their Bitcoin reserves helped in "stabilizing [the nation’s] $3.5 billion economy" — hardly the "volatility trap" the IMF predicted.

  5. Investment Magnet: Analysts now suggest Bhutan’s model could attract new foreign capital, especially for renewable energy projects.


The Real Question

The IMF’s projections weren’t just off—they were 180° off. This wasn’t a forecasting error. It was either willful ignorance or a deliberate attempt to scare nations away from monetary sovereignty.

How did Bhutan shatter the IMF’s playbook? The answer lies in three specific moves—each one a blueprint for other nations.

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© 2025 Daniel Batten
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